After Consecutive Confounding Years, What Can the US Economy Do for an Encore?
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After Consecutive Confounding Years, What Can the US Economy Due for an Encore?
At the end of 2024, the Federal Reserve finally cut the target overnight lending rate. The markets had been waiting for it to do so for almost 18 months. Why did it take the Fed so long to do it? Two words: 1) inflation (which wouldn’t cooperate), and; 2) jobs (the economy was creating too many of them). But why was inflation so bad and persistent? Further, how was the economy creating jobs when virtually no one believed the economy was hitting on all cylinders? As we enter 2025, analysts are still focused on these two things. Just what will happen with consumer prices in the new year? Will they stay at a level where the Fed feels comfortable in continuing to cut the overnight rate? Also, is the labor market really as strong as the government suggests? There are too many discrepancies in the jobs’ data to have it all make sense. Finally, if that weren’t enough, when will Washington rein in the deficit spending, and what impact will the massive accumulated debt have on the economy? Make no bones about it, 2025 could be as crazy as 2023 and 2024.
What are some of the reasons why inflation elevated for as long as it was?
What are some of the reasons why inflation should remain subdued in 2025?
What are the discrepancies in the jobs’ data which are clouding the true strength in the labor markets?
How high will the Unemployment Rate climb in 2025?
What is the probable case impact of the accumulated debt on the US economy over the next decade?
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